Monday, 02 May 2011 06:43

Edward Hugh – a Quite Bohemian Economist

Rate this item
(0 votes)

These days many of us worry about the state of the Spanish economy and quite a few of us have to revise our business ideas or career plans. For advice and inspiration, who could be better to talk to than the economist Edward Hugh who has built himself a solid reputation by catching the opportunities of the web 2.0.

 

Edward, when I look at your background it seems that Facebook has played a greater role for your status as an internationally recognized economist than your formal education. What do you think?

If an economist is someone who has to belong to a certain school and step by step build a position at a university or another institution, then I guess that you are right. One of my friends describes me as a bank executive who leads a bohemian life and I certainly prefer to see myself as a free thinker. My career history is anything but straight. It did, in fact, start at the London School of Economics, since I had always been fascinated by economic history and the history of economic thought, and there I discovered that I was really good at macroeconomics. However, microeconomics gave me a migraine, so I decided to move to Manchester and instead continue my studies in the philosophy of science and sociology. I am originally from Liverpool and what I was after at that stage of life was what the Germans call general Bildung, and not a strict specialization.

Once I had finished my education I spent quite a few years of drifting around, doing a bit of teaching but also many other things. That was when it occurred to me that I really wanted to learn a foreign language up to the level when you are able to think in that language, although it is not your native tongue. When considering where to go, France seemed like a natural choice since I had always liked French, but a friend of mine suggested I check out Barcelona instead. And, of course, I fell in love with the city when I made my first trip here in 1985 – with its climate and environment it seemed so privileged compared to Paris. But here you will see that I am person who needs time for ideas to mature:  Even if I made up my mind right away, only in 1990 did I actually move here.

So when and why did you take up economics again?

My first jobs in Barcelona were obviously as an English teacher because you have to remember that the labour market was not at all as international as it is today. But I also gave a few classes in informatics – I am an autodidact, but have always had a very good relationship with computers. Now, this why I was early in starting to use the Internet and what I discovered was so fascinating. There it was, all of a sudden: the ‘global village’ which media expert McLuhan had predicted already in the 70-ies. Interestingly, one of the first communities which started to have an educated conversation and share their knowledge on the web, were the American economists – an otherwise very conservative group of people.  So, I found my way back to the economic debate not really by choice, but because that is what was available.

Since I did not hold any formal title, blogging became my way of reaching an audience and with the time even important people started to take notice. Back then only true Internet animals were on line during odd hours, so on a Boxing Day, I managed to call Nobel Prize Winner Paul Krugman’s attention by commenting on one of his texts. And then there were a few truly fortunate coincidences, like when the think-tank “A fistful of Euros” selected me as their specialist on the Spanish economy. Within that team we wrote about the European economies in a time when our American counterparts were eager to quote references based in the EU, and since we did not have any competition, we saw a strong positive spiral in terms of incoming links. From there, in turn, I have moved on to Roubini Global Economics where you automatically reach a highly specialized group of readers – expert journalists or the staff of institutions like IMF.

During the same years, as Facebook started to become popular, I saw the opportunity to add a lighter side to my writing. Compared to my academic texts, I like the idea of micro-blogging since it is much less time consuming but you tend to receive a lot of rapid feedback on your posts.

My own conclusion is that, if today I have a certain reputation as an economist, it is all thanks to the many ideas and opinions I have given away absolutely for free.

And as an economist, what can you tell us about the crisis which we still feel so severely here in Spain?

Spanish politicians should think less about what people want to hear and be honest about the situation. I see two big obstacles. The first is that Spanish labour is not competitive enough in the international market, so we will not see an export lead recuperation like they have in Germany. The second one is more pressing: Spanish banks need capital. But I have a feeling that the decision makers are suffering a total problem overload. Every now and then international media seem to praise Zapatero, but let it be very clear that the piecemeal adjustments which his government is making are not enough – we need a comprehensive change.

Neither is the world economy especially stable: the USA has a serious public debt problem and from the new motor, China, we receive repeated warning signals about a real estate bubble. Add to this that a lot of European debt will have to be restructured in 2013 and you will understand that we are far from firm land.

Recently, international media seem to point the finger at Catalonia. How fair is that?

Well, it is totally fair from a short term and strictly economic perspective. Since the Spanish government does not want to rescue or nationalize the banks it is absolutely crucial that it manages to stick to the agreed target of a 6% deficit in the public finances and then deviations like the ones announced by the Catalans simply are not acceptable.

But under no circumstances do I blame this on the new Catalan government – they have to clean up what their predecessors somehow managed to hide. On top of that, the central government has to admit to the rest of Spain that the current redistribution of taxes has left Catalonia in a totally unsustainable situation which requires for a tailored solution – another “café para todos” will not do. In the meantime, however, I am afraid that Catalonia will have to comply with the official guidelines. If it does not, it will risk throwing the whole country into total disorder. Remember that the financial markets keep a close eye on the regional debt development so any relaxation could rapidly cause a panic.

And how do you see the future of Barcelona in this dark picture?

Barcelona is a huge asset, not only for Catalonia but for Spain as a total! In how many other places of the world is it so easy to attract international talent to come and work? Imagine what you can achieve if you mix that with the traditional Catalan culture of running small and medium sized businesses.

The city of Barcelona is clearly becoming more business friendly, but still has a lot to work on in its contacts with the rest of the world, because that is where the future lies. When entrepreneurs need capital they must learn to look for it in London and California, since the local financial market will not work properly for many years to come.

In this process, I would suggest that we give a much greater prominence to the English language. It is, in fact, quite embarrassing that nowadays even Latvians have a lot better English than Catalans. And, by the way, could not a switch to English as the universal language of the Barcelona business community be something of a neutral alternative to the ever ongoing dispute between Catalan and Spanish?

That is probably a bit too controversial, but I am happy to finally hear a positive message from you.

There are many things to be optimistic about! Every crisis comes with a lot of opportunities, but you have to stop thinking of this as a temporary deviation. If we spend our energy dreaming about “brotes verdes”, we block ourselves from being creative and adapting our products and services to the new reality.  Look at Japan – their consumer market in now full of small packages or budget options targeting those who do not have much money.

Thanks a lot for this inspiration, Edward. To round off, could you please tell us which is your favourite place in Barcelona?

Whenever I can, I visit the park Putxet, independently of the season. It is almost right next to Parc Güell but while this one is full of tourists, Putxet is always calm. I see it as my private garden in the centre of Barcelona.

- – -
Find Edward Hugh’s blog here and his Facebook page here.

Read 1169 times Last modified on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 18:50

11 comments

Leave a comment

Make sure you enter the (*) required information where indicated. HTML code is not allowed.

Back to Top
You are now being logged in using your Facebook credentials